EUR/USD: a new technical chart pattern

The EUR/USD remains compressed within a thin consolidation channel between $1.1460 and $1.1675, with exchange traders keeping a watchful and anxious eye on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

"By striking Iranian infrastructure dedicated to developing its nuclear program as well as military capabilities, Israel has conducted the most significant offensive against the Islamic Republic since the war against its Iraqi neighbor in the 1980s. These operations, already spread over three days with material and human damage superior to anything previously observed, seem to be pursuing For now, Israel targets almost exclusively the Revolutionary Guards and military infrastructure, avoiding major oil or political sites, suggesting a strategy of targeted pressure rather than an objective of overthrowing the regime," comments Jeoffrey Ouafqa, managing director of Auris Management.

Hopes of accalmation were quickly swept away by the mysterious premature departure of Donald Trump during the G7 summit on Monday, about a day before the end of the summit. This sudden departure has since sparked a good number of questions, including calls from the White House tenant "to evacuate Tehran immediately" in a message on his Truth Social social network.

On Saturday and Sunday, the offensives of the two countries were pursued. On Saturday, Tel Aviv attacked the South Pars gas field in southern Iran. It's the largest known gas reserve in the world, shared between Iran and Qatar.

This bombing shows that Israel does not hesitate to target Iran's energy infrastructure. According to Bloomberg citing the Israeli news agency Tasnim, this attack, which targeted section 13 of the gas field, forced the shutdown of a production platform on the gas field.

The single currency, one of the barometers of risk appetite on financial markets, benefited from the support of a surprise, and firm, rebound from the ZEW index of confidence in the German economy. The index flared from 25.1 to 47.6 points this month.

Yesterday, traders took notice of a collapse in the NY Fed Manufacturing Index (Empire State Index) to -15.9.

"Confidence is recovering. In June 2025, the ZEW indicator records a new tangible improvement. Recent growth in investment and consumer demand has contributed there. This evolution also seems to comfort the view that budgetary policy measures announced by the new German government can stimulate the economy Coupled with recent ECB interest rate cuts, these measures could put an end to the economic stagnation in Germany, which has lasted for nearly three years," comments ZEW President Achim Wambach.

In a few minutes: US retail sales at 14.30 (EU time).

Right now, the EUR/USD is trading at $1.1570.

KEY CHART ELEMENTS
On Thursday the spot broke free of a resistance area at $1.1460, an area that is already being tested early, in the form of a pullback this Friday. The absence of bullish expansion after the $1.1460 franking casts doubt as to the spot's ability to continue in the coming weeks its upward move from the bottom. The test of the 50-day moving average (in orange) will therefore be essential.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST
In view of the key graphical factors we have mentioned, our view is neutral to medium term on the EUR/USD.

We will maintain this neutral view as long as the EUR/USD is positioned between support at $1.1460 and resistance at $1.1674.