The EUR/USD rate has remained neutral in recent hours amid major political and monetary developments in the United States, combining White House announcements, mixed macroeconomic statistics, and heightened expectations for the Federal Reserve.

On the institutional front, Donald Trump has appointed Stephen Miran, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and a proponent of monetary easing, to temporarily fill a vacant seat on the Fed's Board of Governors. This decision comes as the White House is also seeking a successor to Jerome Powell, whose term as head of the central bank expires in May 2026. While this temporary appointment does not alter the Fed's balance in the short term, it nevertheless fuels the perception of growing political influence over the institution, reinforcing expectations of rate cuts as early as September. Markets are now 92% pricing in a reduction in the key rate at the next meeting, with at least two policy easings expected by the end of the year.

On the macroeconomic front, the latest US employment data confirmed a weakening of the labour market. Job creation in July came in below expectations, while the previous two months were revised downward. Weekly jobless claims rose, with 225,000 initial claims and a record high for continuing claims (1.98 million) since November 2021. Meanwhile, the New York Fed survey highlighted a rise in inflation expectations to 3% one year ahead and 2.8% five years ahead, reflecting the potential impact of tariff increases imposed by the Trump administration. These inflationary pressures, considered temporary by some monetary officials but potentially persistent by others, complicate the short-term monetary policy trajectory.

From a chart perspective, the EUR/USD pair remains in a well-established upward trend. Buying pressure remains evident, evidenced by the formation of large green candlesticks during the rebound phase. This behavior reflects buyers' ability to quickly regain control after each technical pullback, thus consolidating the upward momentum. The trend should remain valid as long as prices remain above the main intermediate supports, with the potential to continue towards major resistances if the bullish momentum continues.

MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
In light of the key chart factors we have mentioned, our medium-term view is positive on the EUR/USD.

Our entry point is at $1.6600. The price target for our bullish scenario is $1.2000. To protect the invested capital, we recommend placing a protective stop loss at $1.1380.

The expected return on this forex strategy is 4600 pips and the risk of loss is 5220 pips.