EUR/USD: today's economic agenda is US macroeconomic data

The euro is trading slightly higher against the dollar in a market environment still dominated by monetary policy expectations. Investors remain attentive to US indicators, which could influence the economic trajectory and, consequently, future decisions by the Federal Reserve, even as the year-end momentum is accompanied by lower trading volumes.

In the US, recent statements by Stephen Miran, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, confirm a generally accommodative stance. He believes that current interest rates can be maintained until more tangible signs of a slowdown in inflation or the labor market materialize, leaving open the possibility of further cuts in 2026. This interpretation is helping to keep the dollar under pressure and supporting the euro's rebound.

In the eurozone, the European Central Bank is adopting a cautious approach. Isabel Schnabel indicated that no interest rate hikes were planned in the near future, while noting that persistent inflationary pressures could eventually necessitate an increase in borrowing costs. This statement limits expectations of short-term monetary tightening and helps stabilise the euro against the dollar.

Internationally, the yen showed signs of strengthening after warnings from Japanese authorities regarding what they considered excessive movements in the foreign exchange market.

Today's macroeconomic calendar was marked by the release of US third-quarter GDP, followed by November industrial production figures, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, and the Richmond Fed's manufacturing index.

Technically, the euro is rising again after a brief period of consolidation. The impulsive candlestick formed during the last session, encompassing several previous sessions, provides a medium-term buy signal and strengthens the likelihood of a gradual return to the yearly highs.

MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST
Based on the key technical factors we have mentioned, our medium-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair is positive.

Our entry point is $1.1785. The price target for our bullish scenario is $1.1830. To protect your capital, we advise placing a stop-loss order at $1.1386.

The expected profit for this forex strategy is 45 pips, and the potential loss is 400 pips.