EUR/USD: US Jobs figures pass the medical exam

While currency traders are still trying to gauge the impact on oil and global geopolitics of last week's operation to capture the Venezuelan president by US forces, the EUR/USD continued its consolidation trend ahead of key US private sector employment reports.

Macroeconomics and investment strategy experts at Neuberger Berman assert that "the geopolitical dimension remains central" to the question of global oil supply trends.

"On the one hand, the end of Venezuelan military pressure on Guyana is a favorable factor for the stability of offshore development and the reliability of regional supply. On the other hand, in a context where energy is increasingly perceived as a national security issue, major importers like China could accelerate the building up of strategic reserves in response to emerging risks to their energy security and evolving US policy. Recent demonstrations in Iran have also increased the risks of involvement for the United States, reinforcing uncertainty about future supply in the region and contributing to overall supply risk. This competition to secure physical volumes and stocks could support structural demand and strengthen the attractiveness of long-term oil investment."

In any case, the main stock indices are benefiting from this decline in crude oil prices, reaching, like the CAC 40, or exceeding, like the DAX and the DJI, their peaks.

On the statistics front, yesterday currency traders took note of preliminary consumer price data for the EU in December 2025. Excluding volatile items (food, alcohol, and tobacco), prices rose by 2.2% year-on-year, below the consensus forecast of +2.3%. This Thursday, they considered a series of economic data for the Eurozone. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone fell slightly in November to 6.2%, compared to 6.3% the previous month, but is higher than the 6.2% rate projected for November 2024. Regarding consumer confidence, the index improved, but remained in negative territory in December, at -13 compared to -14.1 in November.

But it is undoubtedly the US employment figures that will be the focus of attention this week, culminating tomorrow with the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) report, the federal health bulletin of private-sector employment in the United States for December. Tune in tomorrow at 14:30 p.m. (EU time) for this key event.

These crucial data come as the world's largest economy faces a paradoxical situation: its growth remains robust while it simultaneously sheds jobs.

"The US employment figures for December will be the main focus, especially since the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled a cautious approach to rate cuts at its last meeting," comments Christopher Dembik, investment strategist at Pictet AM.

As a reminder, the content of the November report brought relief, easing recent concerns. While the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% of the labor force, job creation in the private sector was reassuring, at 63,000. And, crucially, hourly wage growth remained very subdued at +0.1%, below consensus estimates. US employment is therefore slowing, but without any sharp decline.

"Even though some uncertainty remains regarding the extent of future rate cuts, it is likely that two further rate cuts totaling 50 basis points will occur during the first half of the year. This would bring the key interest rate to between 3.00% and 3.25%. This is in line with consensus. Subsequent developments will depend, in addition to the usual economic data, on the ability of Powell's successor to establish a foothold in relation to Donald Trump," the asset management executive continued.

In the meantime, traders will have some intermediate benchmarks, notably the weekly jobless claims figures released this Thursday. In the immediate term, the survey by the private human resources firm ADP (Automatic Data Processing), published yesterday, showed job creation slightly below already pessimistic expectations, at 40,000. The JOLTS report, for its part, showed a decrease in the number of job openings in the United States in November, to 7.147 million compared to 7.450 million in October.

Right now, the EUR/USD is trading at $1.1665.

KEY TECHNICAL ELEMENTS
While the short-term bias remains confirmed by the relative position of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages after their crossover, the buying entry point is not optimal at this stage.